Russia expected to intensify hybrid war on Europe

Denmark's Defence Intelligence Service has warned that Russia may intensify its hybrid warfare campaign against NATO and Western nations in the coming months. The threat assessment, released on September 24, indicates a "low but growing risk" of a limited Russian military attack on a NATO country bordering Russia. Moscow could employ tactics such as drone or missile strikes against Ukraine, or potentially stage a false-flag operation involving Ukrainian-made drones or a small number of troops in a NATO border region under a pretext of protecting Russian minorities.

Intelligence chief Thomas Ahrenkiel stated that such an attack would be a "desperate move" by Russia and aimed at dividing NATO rather than seizing control of the country. The assessment also highlighted an increasing likelihood of destructive cyberattacks against Denmark. Denmark's Resilience Agency separately stated that Russia is likely to attempt such cyberattacks, raising the threat level.

The warning comes amid a series of incidents across Europe, including a recent attempted drone attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport allegedly linked to Russia and NATO's increased intelligence-sharing in response to these incidents. Denmark's military reported a recent encounter with a Russian frigate and a Danish helicopter in international waters off Denmark, where the Russian vessel fired two flares at the helicopter, one of which narrowly missed.

However, Russia has consistently denied involvement in such sabotage or hybrid warfare operations in NATO countries. The Russian embassy in Denmark dismissed the latest Danish assessment as unsupported by credible evidence and accused Western nations of escalating tensions over Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin dismissed suggestions that Russia was preparing for conflict with Europe, stating that Moscow had "no real motive" to escalate tensions and criticizing European countries for claiming the need to prepare for a possible war with Russia.