Is the Trump Bull Market About to Crash? A Historically Accurate Measure of Risk Offers a Chilling Answer.
The stock market has a $1.5 trillion problem that can’t be swept under the rug.
The Trump-era bull market, characterized by historically significant growth across major stock indices, appears to be facing an uncertain future. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite have all recorded substantial gains during President Donald Trump's tenure. Between January 2017 and January 2021, the Dow increased by 57%, the S&P 500 by 70%, and the Nasdaq Composite by an impressive 142%.
Since his second term commenced in January 2025, the indices have gained a more moderate 19%, 28%, and 35%, respectively.
Several factors have contributed to this outperformance, including the rapid development of AI infrastructure, robust corporate earnings, and record share buybacks. The latter are a direct result of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, enacted in December 2017, which lowered the top corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%.
However, the looming question is whether this elevated market performance signals an impending crash. The historical data suggests that the market's resilience during Trump's presidency is remarkable, but the path forward remains largely speculative. Investors and analysts will need to closely monitor economic indicators and policy developments to determine the sustainability of this bullish trend.
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