How the super El Nino may kill thousands in India

A recent study from the University of Chicago's Energy Policy Institute has warned that the ongoing "super El Nino" could lead to around 15,800 extra heat-related deaths in India within the next six months. The study, released on Wednesday, projected that the global death toll could reach nearly 451,000 more in the same timeframe compared to a typical year, according to co-author Emily Grover-Kopec.

The researchers relied on seasonal temperature forecasts, particularly the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' ECMWF SEAS5 model, and temperature-mortality relationships derived from a widely-cited study published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics in 2022. Grover-Kopec emphasized that the shorter-term forecasts were used differently than the long-term ones, aiming to provide timely information for decision-makers.

Abhiyant Tiwari, from the Natural Resources Defense Council in India, hailed the study as a valuable early warning, while also cautioning that the mortality estimates require further peer review. Tiwari noted that India's existing Heat Action Plans (HAPs) and robust institutional frameworks could serve as a strong foundation for scaling up preparedness and protecting vulnerable populations.

Public health professional Harshal Ramesh Salve from AIIMS stressed the urgency to act swiftly, implementing heat action plans, data-driven policies, and fostering data-sharing mechanisms at national and local levels. He also emphasized the need for an equity-driven approach, addressing the most vulnerable groups like the elderly, those with comorbidities, children, pregnant women, and occupational workers.