Investment: Can a 150-year-old chart predict stock market prices?
From the Handelsblatt archive: A curve from the 19th century predicts market developments with astonishing precision. For 2026, it recommends selling stocks. How reliable this really is.
A graph from the 1870s, known as "Periods when to make Money," claims to predict stock market cycles and advise on optimal investment times. Despite seemingly accurate predictions of past market crashes, including 1929, the dot-com bubble, and the 2020 coronavirus crash, Professor Andreas Hackethal from the Leibniz-Institut für Finanzmarktforschung SAFE argues that its assumptions are based on astrology, not economics.
Hackethal states that the graph's apparent accuracy is due to chance, and that market timing does not work, as only a few exceptional days drive returns. He advises investors to diversify and ride out market fluctuations instead of trying to time the market.
Written by urgent.news from Handelsblatt's report — not a translation of it. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
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- Investment: Can a 150-year-old chart predict stock market prices? handelsblatt.com