Trump’s US ratings drop to new record low as Democrats become clear favourites in both chambers of Congress
Trump’s net approval is below what any past president since Harry Truman had at this point in their term.
Nate Silver's analysis of national polls reveals that Donald Trump's net approval rating has reached an all-time low of -23.0, with 60.4% disapproving and 37.4% approving. This marks a significant decline from his September 14 rating of -19.7. Trump's approval is now the lowest of any president since Harry Truman, with the closest figure in his first term at -11.6. Four key issues, including immigration, trade, the economy, and inflation, have all seen Trump's net approval drop between -13.0 and -46.4.
The Iran war, currently the subject of widespread opposition, has further eroded Trump's approval. Currently, 57.9% oppose the war, while 33.5% support it, resulting in a net support of -24.4. This is a drop from -20.1 in the September 14 report. If the Iran war disruption persists until the midterm elections, coupled with rising petrol prices and inflation, Republicans are likely to lose control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
However, if the disruption eases and petrol prices fall back before the midterms, Republicans may perform better than their current state and retain control of the Senate.
In the 2024 midterm elections, all 435 House of Representatives seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats will be up for election. Democrats are the clear favorites to gain control of the Senate, needing at least a four-seat gain to secure the majority. To win the House, Democrats need at least a four-point margin in the generic ballot.
Currently, Silver's model gives Democrats a 51.4-42.3 lead over Republicans in the Senate, a 9.1-point margin (8.2 points in the September 14 report). Democrats' chances of winning the Senate are estimated at 69%, while their chances of winning the House are at 91%. However, a uniform swing indicates Democrats need a double-digit margin in the generic ballot to win the Senate, with a 6-7 point advantage. In the House, Democrats are favorites if they win by 3-4 points.
Written by urgent.news from The Conversation AU's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
