Russia lowers gas production forecasts for next three years

The Russian government has lowered its forecast for natural gas production over the next three years, including associated gas, according to a report by Interfax on September 25. The reduction in production estimates for 2026, 2027-2029 is detailed in the Russian Economic Development Ministry’s macroeconomic forecast for the same period, which was reviewed during a government meeting on September 24.

In comparison to the previous year, Russia produced 662.7 billion cubic meters of gas in 2025. The gas production in the first eight months of 2026 increased by 3.4%, or 14.7 billion cubic meters, compared to the same period in 2025, reaching 446.5 billion cubic meters.

The updated gas production forecast for 2027 stands at 696.1 billion cubic meters, a decrease from the previous estimate of 711.3 billion cubic meters. The projections for 2028, 2029 have also been reduced to 710.5 billion cubic meters and 740.1 billion cubic meters, respectively, from the earlier estimates of 731.9 billion cubic meters and 750.4 billion cubic meters.

Russian Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov attributed the forecasted decline in gas supplies to the EU, gradual growth in supplies to China, and limitations on LNG, primarily impacting the Arctic LNG 2 project due to sanctions. The situation echoes a previous report suggesting that Russian President Vladimir Putin had not been successful in persuading Chinese President Xi Jinping to back the construction of the new Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline.