Nigeria faces world's highest projected heat death toll from super El Niño

Research from the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab reveals that a super El Niño could lead to 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide between now and February 2027. Africa's Sahel region is expected to suffer the most severe consequences. Nigeria is projected to be one of the hardest hit countries, with nearly half of its 31,400 projected heat-related deaths expected to occur within its borders.

The Sahel region spans across 10 countries, with Nigeria, Sudan, Niger and Chad among the most affected. In Nigeria, poverty is widespread, with 60% of people living below the national poverty line in 2025. Sudan suffers from war and economic turmoil, with 57% of its population living in extreme poverty in 2025. Niger and Chad also face significant poverty issues, with 41% and 44.8% of their populations, respectively, living in poverty in 2021 and 2022.

Many people in Niger and Chad rely on agriculture, making them particularly vulnerable to droughts and poor harvests. Access to electricity is limited in these regions, with only 21% of Niger's population and 13% of Chad's having electricity in 2024. This lack of access to cooling systems puts the population at greater risk during extreme heat events.

The study used the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' seasonal forecast to estimate temperature changes and then translated those changes into projected heat-related deaths using research from the Climate Impact Lab. The research focused on how temperature affects death rates in 24,378 regions, considering factors such as local climate, people's risk and their ability to cope with heat.

Vulnerable populations, such as older individuals, children and those with chronic health conditions, are at higher risk of heat-related deaths. The study highlights the need for governments in affected regions to take immediate action to protect their citizens from the projected heat-related deaths.