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The global fuel crisis is primarily attributed to a reduced supply of oil from the Middle East and a severe lack of refining capacity, rather than Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian refineries, according to Serhii Kuyun, Director of A-95 Consulting Group. Kuyun emphasized that Western appeals for Ukraine to cease strikes on Russian oil refineries overlook the far greater impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
He noted that Ukrainian strikes have reduced global supplies of Russian oil and petroleum products by around 1 to 1.5 million barrels per day, which is 10 times more than the 10 to 12 million barrels per day disrupted by the Iran conflict. Kuyun pointed out that without the Iran crisis, the absence of Russian diesel fuel would have gone largely unnoticed.
He clarified that the global market is grappling with a structural shortage of oil refining capacity, as many European refineries were closed during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the remaining plants are aging and inefficient. The situation is especially dire in the diesel market, with prices surging to $1,650 per ton, compared to gasoline at $1,300 per ton.
This price disparity highlights that the fuel shortage is primarily concentrated in the diesel market. Kuyun noted that Gazprom Neft's major Moscow oil refinery has ceased processing crude oil following Ukrainian drone attacks that ignited fires at its primary distillation units. The refinery's AVT-6 unit, which processes 21,400 tons of crude oil per day, representing 53% of the plant's total capacity, and its EURO+ refining unit, handling 18,800 tons per day or 47% of capacity, have been affected.
The Moscow Oil Refinery's fuel has not been sold on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange since the drone strikes. Fires broke out at the Kuibyshev Oil Refinery in Samara and the Lukoil-Permnefteorgsintez oil refinery in Perm, both due to Ukrainian drone attacks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that Ukrainian strikes have knocked out over 45% of Russia's total oil refining capacity.
Written by urgent.news from New Voice of Ukraine's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
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