Fighting in northern Ethiopia spurs fears of blackout and blockade

Ethiopian forces faced multiple rebel assaults from the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF) on Friday, while a telecommunications shutdown raised concerns about a repeat of the devastating blockade from the last Tigray war in 2020-2022. Rebels seized local airports and attacked neighboring states of Afar and Amhara, declaring a "full-blown war" against the federal government.

Amid the fighting, people in Tigray rushed to buy alternative SIM cards as the primary telecom provider was cut off, leading to widespread internet disruptions confirmed by Netblocks. Many residents are fearful of a return to the 2020-2022 blockade, which was one of the deadliest conflicts in recent times with an estimated death toll exceeding 600,000.

In Afar, heavy fighting, including drone strikes, was reported around the town of Abala, with federal forces attempting to halt the rebels' advance. In Amhara, the army claimed to have killed over 700 TPLF fighters, but provided no figures for army or civilian casualties. Clashes were also reported in the UNESCO World Heritage sites of Lalibela, home to Ethiopia's famous rock churches.

The TPLF has formed an alliance with six other armed groups across the country in an attempt to overthrow Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government. Analysts suggest the TPLF is likely to push south through Amhara towards the capital, Addis Ababa, while the offensive in Afar aims to block supplies from Djibouti, a key international trade route.

Ethiopia's military advantage includes a large arsenal of drones, an army numbering around 500,000, and external support, particularly from the United Arab Emirates. Conflict monitor Clionadh Raleigh stated that although it is not yet an all-out war, there are no apparent mechanisms to prevent further escalation. The involvement of Eritrea on the side of the rebels is also a possibility, as they fear Ethiopia's intentions to invade and claim direct access to the Red Sea.

Washington lifted sanctions on Ethiopia and Eritrea related to atrocities during the last civil war earlier this month, citing the expiration of the national emergency. The US embassy expressed disappointment with the TPLF's offensive. Panic buying of basic goods has intensified in Tigray, with residents fearing a recurrence of disruptions to banks, telecommunications, electricity, and other essential services.