Ethiopia: what's driving the renewed violence in Tigray?

Internet and phone networks were interrupted in the northern Ethiopian region of Tigray on Friday following clashes between the federal military and Tigrayan forces. This marks the most significant spike in violence since a 2020-2022 war. Four sources familiar with the situation, including a diplomatic contact, told Reuters that the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the ruling party in Tigray, directed private operator Safaricom and state-owned Ethio telecom to terminate phone and internet services in the area.

One source suggested the move might be a strategy to offset the government's aerial advantage by disabling mobile communication networks. However, the TPLF did not respond to inquiries for comment. A TPLF insider denied involvement, blaming the government instead. Reports from Reuters reporters' attempts to reach Ethio telecom numbers showed no service, while connectivity remained limited for Safaricom users.

NetBlocks, a monitor of internet outages, confirmed the disruption in the region. The shutdown has raised concerns about a return to the dire circumstances experienced by Tigray residents during the 2020-2022 conflict, when the government cut communications and supply routes, leaving hundreds of thousands in famine-like conditions.

The recent fighting encouraged people to stockpile necessities and withdraw cash, leading to panic buying at shops. Tigrayan forces and their supporters seized three local airports and clashed with federal troops in Afar and Amhara, claiming it was a defensive response to government aggression. The Ethiopian government accused Eritrea of financially supporting the TPLF and its allies, a claim Asmara denies.

The potential escalation of conflict could further destabilize a region already burdened by strained relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea, Sudan's civil war, disputes over Red Sea access, and tensions from Middle Eastern conflicts. The United Nations and European Union have called for peace and an end to the violence, emphasizing the need to resume the African Union-mediated peace process that ended a previous conflict claiming hundreds of thousands of lives.