The high cost of waiting for airport capacity

Long-term infrastructure planning for airports must account for adaptability as circumstances change. In 2013, Singapore outlined a plan for its Changi Airport's major expansion, including Terminal 5 and the Changi East development. Work on the site began a year later in 2014, with construction of Terminal 5 commencing in 2025. The project faced a two-year pause during the Covid-19 pandemic, during which the Singapore Ministry of Transport, the Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore, and Changi Airport Group reassessed aviation growth trajectories and modified the terminal's design for modularity, resilience, and sustainability.

The terminal is projected to open around the mid-2030s, highlighting the lengthy timeline from planning to first passengers - often spanning decades.

Changi East expansion includes a terminal, three-runway system, expanded cargo facilities, tunnels, and supporting infrastructure. Long-term airport planning must go beyond mere forecasts, accommodating adaptability as circumstances evolve. This is the reality of planning infrastructure for an airport, city, and economy spanning generations. The challenge extends beyond capacity - airports must also prepare for climate risks and rapidly changing technology, as the infrastructure they build today may operate for decades.

Air travel is projected to grow steadily, with annual passenger growth of 3.6% in the Asia-Pacific and 4% in the Middle East by 2054. This modest growth translates to billions of additional journeys over three decades, with global passenger traffic reaching 23 billion by 2054, dominated by the Asia-Pacific at 10 billion. This growth necessitates ready infrastructure before demand arrives.

The assessment estimates over US$240 billion in planned airport investments through 2035, including US$135 billion for modernization and US$105 billion for new airports. These projects could add capacity for over 1.2 billion passengers and 71 million tonnes of cargo.

Investment in airports requires significant funding, yet the broader economic value of airports justifies this expenditure. Governments, airports, and users should collaborate on funding, with pre-financing offering around 30% savings in financing costs compared to debt and equity. Airports serve critical economic functions, generating jobs, supporting businesses, and connecting cities globally.

In Asean, airports contribute to 1.6 million jobs and US$55 billion in GDP. The aviation sector drives economic growth in the region through tourism, productivity, trade, and investment. Changi Airport exemplifies the benefits of a long-term, adaptable approach to airport infrastructure, enabling Singapore to sustain connectivity vital to its economy.