Russia ties Black Sea grain deal with Ukraine to halt in oil refinery strikes

The recent Black Sea grain deal between Russia and Ukraine is linked to a halt in oil refinery strikes, according to sources. Turkey has been seeking a shipping deal through the Black Sea, but Ukrainian officials claim that Russia always demands more concessions. The rusting cargo ship Turgut S, located near the Black Sea port of Sulina, serves as a reminder of the ongoing conflict in the region.

Both the Russian and Ukrainian governments view Turkey's proposal for a moratorium on Black Sea shipping attacks positively, although Kyiv does not foresee a breakthrough soon due to Moscow's persistent additional demands. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan revealed that Ankara had sent proposals to both sides, but their positions on the Black Sea are difficult to reconcile.

Annually, around 72 ships have been targeted in drone attacks, with 50 of those ships having ties to Turkey. Ukrainian officials state that they are ready to agree to a deal modeled on the 2022-2023 Black Sea Grain Initiative, which designated specific ports for grain and fertilizer exports. However, Ukraine remains reluctant to compromise on additional preconditions, such as halting attacks on Russian oil refineries.

Turkish officials emphasize that the disruptions to Black Sea shipping have already caused issues for 13 African countries that rely on grain and fertilizer imports from Ukraine and Russia. Relations between Turkey and Russia have improved recently, with the signing of an agreement on mineral fertiliser shipments, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky remains cautious, suggesting that a deal with Russia could be difficult if Ukraine is forced to halt its long-range strikes.