Kevin Warsh might have to get a lot less popular on Capitol Hill as bond yields soar and rate expectations turn hawkish

Kevin Warsh, a Federal Reserve official, may face growing unpopularity among lawmakers on Capitol Hill as bond yields continue to rise and expectations of future rate hikes become more hawkish. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to raise the base interest rate by another 25 basis points at their October meeting, according to CME’s FedWatch barometer.

President Trump had previously advocated for lower rates, but with bond yields now hovering above 5.1% for the 10-year Treasury and over 5.4% for the 30-year, Warsh and the FOMC may encounter increased credibility challenges if they fail to act.

Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid noted that the recent sell-off in 10-year Treasuries marked the "biggest daily jump since the market turmoil after Liberation Day in April 2025," and the weak performance of the 5-year auction further exacerbated the situation. Inflation expectations are also a contributing factor, with markets anticipating an improvement in this area due to ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran.

However, these talks have been inconclusive thus far, with Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian expressing a lack of willingness to concede, while President Trump contemplates whether to negotiate or "annihilate" the regime. Higher oil prices have also contributed to the inflation concerns, with Brent crude briefly reaching $108 per barrel.

The conundrum faced by Kevin Warsh and the FOMC is twofold. On one hand, the committee has signaled a shift away from accommodating the supply-side inflation shock caused by the Middle East conflict, recognizing that this may harm the broader economy. On the other hand, President Trump has taken a vocal stance against the FOMC, implying that Warsh is still on the dovish side even as he votes with the consensus out of submission.

This has raised concerns about the Fed's independence amid its ongoing efforts to demonstrate credibility.