Australia's jobless rate hits five-year high, RBA hike still seen

Sydney, Australia experienced a surprising increase in the jobless rate to a five-year high in August, despite a solid rebound in employment. The mixed report left markets betting on an imminent rate hike to combat inflation. The Reserve Bank of Australia is believed to have a 95% probability of raising interest rates for the fourth time next Tuesday to 4.6%.

The Australian dollar dipped further to a seven-week low, falling to US$0.7018 after significant losses the previous day. Employment in August increased by 39,500 from July, which saw a drop of 15,800. However, this rise was solely due to part-time jobs. The jobless rate reached 4.6%, surpassing forecasts for a stable 4.5%, marking the highest level since late 2021.

The participation rate climbed to 67.1%, up by 0.2 percentage points. A higher proportion of previously inactive individuals entered the unemployment category. Oscar Guth, an economist from Oxford Economics Australia, noted that employment growth couldn't keep up with the surge in people entering the labor force, partially easing labor market tightness.

Yet, inflation issues persist beyond the labor market. Oil prices surpassed $100 a barrel, and trimmed mean inflation remained at 3.6% in July. Economists anticipate the RBA to hike interest rates during next Tuesday's meeting. For August, the labor force expanded by 67,700, a 2.1% increase from the previous year, while employment grew by a slower 1.6%, indicating a gradual loosening of the labor market.

This aligns with the RBA's assessment that the market has eased slightly but remains tight. Governor Michele Bullock stated that unemployment within a range of 4.5% to 5.0% could help curb inflation, suggesting a possible rate increase. The central bank has raised interest rates three times this year to 4.35% to curb inflation, reaching a post-pandemic peak.

However, core inflation remains at 3.6%, well above the RBA's target range of 2% to 3%. Bullock warned that inflation risks are arising from the Middle East conflict and a data center investment boom. With oil prices back above $100 a barrel, global rate outlooks have changed, with Australia's cash rate now expected to peak near 5.0%.