American AI development ‘cannot separate itself from China’: Zheng Yongnian

A leading Chinese policy adviser has warned that the escalating US-China AI competition could potentially spiral into a cold war, despite efforts to prevent it from reaching that point. Zheng Yongnian, dean of the school of public policy at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, spoke ahead of the upcoming Xi-Trump summit in Washington, where AI is expected to be a key topic of discussion.

Zheng noted that existing AI rules are largely influenced by "sheer strength" and that China's role in AI development remains "indispensable" for the US. He rejected claims that their second face-to-face meeting this year was merely symbolic, stating that significant decisions requiring consensus between leaders cannot be made at the bureaucratic level.

The US and China are currently in a race to narrow the gap in AI development, as China has quickly caught up to the US, which has historically been the early market leader. The summit aims to build on their May summit in Beijing, where both sides agreed to frame their relationship around "constructive strategic stability" to manage conflicts and maintain stability between the world's leading powers.

However, tensions persist, particularly around AI, due to the technology's rapid evolution in a regulatory vacuum. Zheng emphasized that cooperation is crucial in building an international framework for AI, as the technology poses a greater risk than nuclear weapons. While nuclear arms are currently under global oversight, AI is developing rapidly without such regulation, posing significant challenges.

Both nations recognize the need for international cooperation to manage AI risks, but differences exist. The US favors a high-cost AI model catering to developed economies, while China promotes an open-source, mass-market approach aimed at offering low-cost technology to developing nations. Zheng highlighted that unlike the Cold War, where the US and Soviet Union were completely split, the US and China continue to engage with each other, leading to a new dynamic.

The summit faces challenges in translating high-level diplomatic intentions into concrete AI guardrails, primarily due to the low level of political trust between the two nations. Despite this, China may have an advantage going into the talks, as the Trump administration is under pressure from various factors, including the Iran war and the upcoming November midterm elections.

China also seeks to maintain stability in US-China relations ahead of critical internal party events, such as the fifth plenary session of the Communist Party Central Committee and the 21st national congress.