Ukrainian Black Sea strikes disrupt Russian grain exports as shipments plunge

Russia's grain exports for the first quarter of the 2026/27 agricultural year are expected to plummet, according to Interfax. Analysts predict a 1.6-fold decrease, with exports expected to reach only 8.5 million metric tons from July to September, compared to 14 million metric tons last year. The decline is primarily attributed to the shutdown of major transshipment facilities, especially in Novorossiysk, a Ukrainian-attacked port.

The buyer mix has also shifted, with Iran becoming the main purchaser due to the operational Caspian route. Iran now accounts for 17.2% of Russian grain exports, up from a previous 10%, while Türkiye, historically a top importer, now contributes just 2%. Wheat exports are projected at 4.8 million metric tons, down from 10.6 million in the previous year, and barley exports are expected at 0.8 million, compared to 1.9 million.

If Black Sea exports resume after the new year, Russia's export potential could reach 45 million metric tons, but pessimistically, it may only reach 39 million. Russia's total grain harvest is estimated at 134.8 million metric tons, with 88.1 million metric tons of wheat, compared to 141.2 million metric tons last year.