Projected habitat loss and spatial redistribution of two alpine and subalpine species in Himachal Pradesh, Western Himalaya under CMIP6 scenarios

Alpine and subalpine plant species in the Western Himalaya are projected to face habitat loss due to climate change. Meconopsis aculeata and Rhododendron campanulatum, two contrasting species, were studied in Himachal Pradesh, India. Researchers combined field surveys with MaxEnt modelling, using 10 non-collinear environmental predictors and the HadGEM3-GC31-LL climate model.

M. aculeata primarily thrives in open alpine herbaceous communities, while R. campanulatum is found in subalpine woody communities. Both species were found to be influenced by elevation, with climatic predictors playing different roles in their relative importance and response patterns. Projections for 2050 and 2070 under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 indicate habitat reductions of around 25% and 27-28% for M. aculeata and R. campanulatum, respectively.

The analysis revealed heterogeneous patterns of habitat change, rather than uniform contraction, with centroid displacement remaining small. Proximity analyses identified areas of future habitat gain close to currently suitable areas, aiding in the design of climate-proof protected areas. The study highlights the importance of considering interspecific differences in response for multi-species conservation planning, taking into account the spatial relationship between current high-suitability areas and future changes in suitable habitat.