Predicting the economic impact of the High-Luminosity LHC

In 1931, Paul Dirac predicted the existence of a particle identical to the electron in mass but with an opposite charge. This hypothetical particle, known as the positron, was not discovered until the following year by Carl Anderson in a cloud-chamber photograph. While the original scientists could not foresee the medical applications of this discovery, it eventually led to the development of PET scanners to identify tumors by detecting gamma rays emitted during positron annihilation within a patient's body.

The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN has undergone an upgrade to increase its luminosity, known as the High-Luminosity LHC (HiLumi LHC). This upgrade is expected to generate economic benefits that exceed its costs by nearly twice. However, quantifying the economic impact of fundamental research can be challenging, as its far-reaching consequences cannot be easily anticipated or measured in conventional economic terms.

The economic analysis of the HiLumi LHC project considered various factors, including job creation, industrial development, software development, and the value placed on fundamental research. The analysis estimated that about 40.3% of the benefits would come from training a large number of students and young researchers, who would acquire valuable skills that contribute to the wider economy.

The remaining benefits would be derived from industrial suppliers who benefit from new techniques and markets, software developed for the collider that is made available for free, visitors, scientific publications, and the intrinsic value placed on fundamental research.

To ensure a thorough assessment, the project underwent a cost-benefit analysis, considering the LHC's operation until 2030 and then switching it off. The benefits were compared against a counterfactual scenario where the LHC continues to run without the HiLumi LHC upgrade. The analysis, which relied on 15 critical variables randomly sampled from plausible ranges, involved 50,000 simulations. In 94% of these simulations, the outcome was a net positive economic impact.

Similar economic impact analyses have been applied to other scientific facilities, such as synchrotron light sources, hadron therapy, and Earth-observation satellites. The approach has also been used to evaluate the proposed Future Circular Collider, which is expected to repay society more than it costs. As these studies build upon each other, the economics of big science continues to advance alongside the instruments being studied.