IMF says AI could transform economic policy, posing new opportunities and risks for workers, countries, and businesses

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that artificial intelligence (AI) could revolutionize economic policy, presenting both new prospects and challenges for workers, nations, and businesses. According to the 2026 Annual Report, Navigating a Precarious World, AI has the potential to significantly impact productivity, investment, labor markets, and economic policy.

In 2025, technology investments related to AI contributed an estimated 0.5 percentage point to US GDP growth. Moreover, productivity growth in the US has been accelerating in recent years, which may be attributable, at least in part, to the early adoption of AI. Some external estimates suggest that private-sector-driven investment in AI could reach $2 trillion globally by 2026, making it one of the fastest-growing growth drivers in recent years.

As governments allocate more funds towards deploying AI technology across various sectors, productivity gains could accelerate across a broad spectrum of industries and occupations. However, there are concerns regarding the implications of AI on labor markets. Some policymakers, households, and businesses are increasingly worried about how AI will transform the job market, potentially displacing jobs and depressing wages for certain segments of the workforce.

IMF research indicates that individuals with jobs requiring AI-related skills earn more, but cities and regions with a higher concentration of such jobs are not experiencing overall job growth. Workers with AI skills are benefiting, while those in lower-skill roles, such as restaurant staff, who provide services to higher earners, are also reaping the rewards. However, middle-skilled workers whose jobs are highly susceptible to automation are being left behind.

To mitigate the economic, financial stability, and fiscal risks that could arise from an AI-related downturn, particularly in countries with already high debt levels, the IMF is working with its member countries to guard against these potential challenges. At the same time, the IMF remains committed to fully capitalizing on the benefits of AI.