Houthi actions change the security calculus in East Africa

The actions of the Houthi group are altering the security dynamics in East Africa. Initially, the Houthi's strikes on ships in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait in 2023 seemed like a typical aspect of Yemen's ongoing civil war spilling over into the seas. However, three years later, the situation has taken on a different significance. The Houthi group's capture of most of Yemen's western coast has observers contemplating the implications for East Africa, which is situated just beyond the Red Sea.

Although it may be premature to draw any definitive conclusions, the Houthi's capacity to disrupt the waterway, despite lacking a state army or navy, demonstrates the ease with which such a blockade can be achieved. It should be noted that the Houthi's actions were not isolated; Iran provided them with support from the start, supplying weapons and technology that transformed an insurgent movement into a force capable of posing threats to global logistics.

Since 2023, the Houthi's have targeted at least 15 American MQ-9 Reaper drones, causing over $200 million in losses to the US military in a single six-week period in 2025.

The Houthi's success can be attributed to their strong motivation and well-defined objectives. Even in the face of stronger adversaries, they maintain the ability to raise costs for their opponents, making it unsustainable to launch a prolonged military campaign against them. The traditional notion that large armies and expensive bases guarantee control is now being challenged.

The rules of the game are being reshaped by whoever possesses the will and accessible means to enforce them. Even the presence of large armies and costly bases does not guarantee control anymore.