Hormuz Traffic Running 80% Below Its 10-Day Average

In the past 24 hours, only three commodity vessels were recorded to have passed through the Strait of Hormuz, according to preliminary data from Kpler, a tanker-tracking service. This figure is notably low, as it is 80% below the ten-day average of around 15 vessel transits, as reported by Reuters. On Tuesday, the traffic was even more minimal, with just four vessels navigating through the Strait, further underscoring the current disruptions.

The tracking data, however, does not include vessels that have turned off their positioning systems to evade detection or potential attacks. The current situation is exacerbated by the recent re-escalation of tensions, including attacks on tankers, threats from the Iran-aligned Houthis in the Red Sea, and the temporary shutdown of the East-West onshore pipeline in Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia has temporarily reinstated partial service on the East-West pipeline, allowing crude oil to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and be shipped out of the Red Sea port of Yanbu. In contrast, traffic at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, appears more stable, with 22 commodity vessels moving in each direction over the past 10 days, averaging approximately 26 vessels per day.

However, the overall activity at Hormuz remains extremely low, with daily observations of commodity vessels with active AIS positioning remaining in the single digits for several consecutive days due to security concerns. The oil market is currently on hold, awaiting developments from the U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks, which are taking place on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York.