Goldman Sachs cuts smartphone shipment forecast for 2026-28

Goldman Sachs has lowered its smartphone shipment forecasts for 2026 through 2028, citing persistent cost pressures and a rising proportion of high-end devices that are less influenced by pricing changes. The investment bank reduced its global smartphone volume predictions by 1 million, 8 million, and 0.2 million units, setting targets of 1.1 billion, 1.2 billion, and 1.2 billion units for the respective years.

This represents a year-over-year decrease of 10%, 2%, and 2%, compared to the previous estimates of 10%, 3%, and 1%. To compensate for the lower shipment expectations, Goldman Sachs has increased its value estimates, anticipating a 8%, 5%, and 3% year-over-year growth in the smartphone market value, reaching $624 billion, $655 billion, and $674 billion through 2026, 2027, and 2028.

The expected growth stems from higher memory costs and increased demand for premium phones priced above $600. Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about the adoption of foldable phones, projecting a 3.1%, 5.7%, and 6.5% penetration rate for 2026, 2027, and 2028. This is a decrease from earlier projections of 3.6%, 5.9%, and 6.8%, translating to 35 million, 66 million, and 77 million units, a drop of 14%, 4%, and 5% compared to earlier forecasts.

The firm views the premiumization of the market as a continuing trend due to new form factors and features that enhance user experience.