Global gas market pricing prolonged tightness due to Iran war, IGU executive says

Global gas markets are increasingly pricing in supply tightness beyond winter due to the Iran conflict, according to Menelaos Ydreos, secretary general of the International Gas Union (IGU). The situation worsens as Europe competes with Asia for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes while trying to replenish storage sites ahead of winter, amid ongoing uncertainty over the conflict's impact on exports from Qatar, a major LNG supplier.

Forward gas prices indicate traders anticipate elevated prices and supply risks to persist into next summer before easing, Ydreos told Reuters.

Current futures curves suggest markets foresee tight conditions continuing into the next year, a significant shift from previous expectations of easing prices after winter, he noted. Europe is now outbidding Asia for LNG due to storage level replenishment needs, Ydreos explained. The current crisis differs from the 2022 energy shock following Russia's invasion of Ukraine as it affects multiple regions simultaneously.

There is some short-term demand destruction, but the key question is whether demand rebounds after the situation stabilizes or if there are longer-term policy implications. Uncertainty also arises from Europe's ban on Russian LNG imports starting in January. Russian cargoes currently bound for Europe will likely find alternative buyers at potentially lower prices. However, any disruption to these flows would further strain the market already dealing with Middle East supply concerns.

European policymakers are grappling with balancing climate goals with energy security and affordability. Ydreos emphasized the need for achievable regulations that incentivize compliance. He stressed that if regulations are too stringent, the industry may seek alternative regions to send their product.