Ethiopia: Where does the Tigray conflict go from here?

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia - Tigrayan rebels in northern Ethiopia have seized control of a key regional airport and clashed with federal troops in the neighboring region of Afar, multiple sources report on Wednesday as long-standing tensions escalated into open conflict. The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) engaged in a devastating civil war with the federal government from 2020 to 2022, resulting in the deaths of an estimated 600,000 people, according to African Union estimates.

Recent sporadic clashes have raised concerns of a resurgence of war. The TPLF has been actively fighting federal forces since the previous night, with clashes reported in Abala and Erebti, both located in Afar. An NGO source in the region informed AFP via a truck sent to aid displaced individuals, while a humanitarian source confirmed clashes in Abala and Erebti.

A foreign security source in Ethiopia corroborated these reports, stating that TPLF forces had taken control of Berhale, Erebti, Abala, Megale, Dalul, and Konoba in Afar.

Federal forces are reportedly rapidly retreating, according to a former TPLF senior official. The TPLF now controls the regional capital Mekelle's airport, with Ethiopian Airlines suspending flights to three Tigray airports (Mekelle, Axum, and Shire) due to the ongoing situation. A local airport employee at Alula Aba Nega Airport in Mekelle confirmed the takeover of the airport, although the federal police's current status remains unknown.

Previously, the TPLF joined a new alliance of anti-government armed groups from across Ethiopia. Ethiopia currently faces multiple insurgencies, including in its populous regions of Oromia and Amhara. The TPLF ruled Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018 before being sidelined with the rise of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, leading to a civil war that ended in 2022 through the Pretoria Peace Agreement.

The uneasy calm maintained since the agreement has increasingly deteriorated, with the federal government launching drone strikes in Tigray and massing troops at the regional border. Human rights groups accuse the TPLF of a campaign of forced recruitment this year, preparing for renewed conflict.

The Tigray region remains impoverished, with around one million people still displaced and several aspects of the peace agreement unfulfilled. Ethiopian authorities have accused the TPLF of forming alliances with Eritrea and other Ethiopian armed groups. The federal government boasts a significant military advantage, having increased drone production since the last conflict.