Will Germany have enough gas this winter?

Germany currently has around 57% of its total gas storage capacity filled, with just over 141 terawatt-hours stored as of mid-September 2026. This is slightly lower than last year's storage levels, which were around 58% at the same time. In a typical winter, around 134 terawatt-hours of gas are withdrawn from storage. Prime Minister of Bavaria Markus Söder has called for federal government intervention, while opposition Green Party members accuse the economy minister of negligence.

Opposition parties argue that the country is at risk of a gas shortage this winter. Experts interviewed by the German news agency DW, however, do not believe there is cause for concern. Charlie Grüneberg, spokesperson for the German Gas and Hydrogen Industry association, points to signed contracts for medium-term gas needs, which will ensure reliable supplies.

Sebastian Heinermann, managing director of INES, a German association for gas and hydrogen storage system operators, is more cautious, noting that filling gas storage facilities to 77% would require unprecedented efforts, as such levels have not been reached in the past three weeks. Heinermann projects that the fill level will only reach about 65% by November 1 if current trends continue.

The Federal Network Agency, however, maintains that the gas supply in Germany is stable and secure. The agency's spokesperson, Nadia Affani, told DW that security of supply is currently guaranteed. The German Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy shares this view, stating that they are closely monitoring developments to ensure security of supply.

Factors such as storage capacity, imports via pipelines and LNG terminals, demand, and international energy market conditions all play a role in determining the price of natural gas. The ministry stresses that they are prepared for any developments. The main concern is whether enough gas can be procured and transported to and through Germany.

Germany's infrastructure is more robust than it was in 2022, thanks to investments in LNG terminals, new import routes, and reverse-flow capabilities. Gas prices tend to rise as the winter approaches and heating increases. Heinermann notes that gas prices have risen from around €46 to over €80 per megawatt-hour in the second quarter.

Olaf Geyer from Arthur D. Little, who monitors the German market, acknowledges that there is no immediate supply problem, but warns that if the winter is cold or there are import disruptions, prices could rise quickly. Grüneberg notes that reliable price forecasts are difficult to make and low storage levels could cause prices to increase if additional volumes need to be procured on the market.

However, there are no signs of a physical shortage of supply by the end of winter, and the futures markets are not signaling this. The German economy ministry points out that current forward contract prices for the winter are only slightly higher than spot market prices for immediate transactions. The usual summer-winter spread, which made storing gas economically viable in summer, is not present this year due to rising prices following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Geyer notes that storage facilities are not fuller this time around because it hasn't been economically viable. He calls for effective economic incentives to fill gas storage facilities and better risk management by utilities, considering both purchase prices and the potential deviation of actual consumption from projections.