USD/JPY Price Forecast: Rises to near 158.00 near 50-day EMA

USD/JPY price is forecasted to rise to near 158.00, approaching the 50-day EMA. After a recent pullback, the currency pair has been consolidating and remains restrained by the medium-term trend filter. The pair is currently above the nine-period EMA but below the 50-period EMA, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish near-term outlook.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 53.48 suggests moderate positive momentum, with selling pressure easing instead of reversing decisively. The USD/JPY pair is moving upwards within an ascending channel pattern, conveying a strengthening bullish bias. The Federal Reserve's chair, Jerome Powell, has delivered a hawkish speech, indicating a stronger-than-usual push for tighter monetary policy.

Fed Governor Musalem warns that inflation could remain substantially above the 2% target for the next 18 months due to broad-based price pressures, including commodity shocks like copper. The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rises to 149.96, firmly in hawkish territory and consistent with Powell's emphasis on further rate hikes to combat persistent inflation.

A successful break above the 50-day EMA of 158.08 could reinforce the bullish bias and potentially propel the pair to a near 40-year high of 163.99, reached on July 23. Conversely, the primary support levels are at the nine-day EMA of 156.41 and the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 154.60. A sustained breach of these levels could expose the nearly 11-month low of 152.10.