Trump says Belarus potash deal in works amid Canada fight

President Donald Trump announced on Monday that the US is working with Belarus to secure more potash supplies amid a trade dispute with Canada, a major supplier of the essential ingredient used in fertilizers. The president stated that the pricing for potash from Belarus would be significantly lower than the current costs paid to Canada, benefiting farmers and ranchers.

However, Belarus has not historically been a major potash supplier to the US, and potential shipping challenges persist. Prior to US trade restrictions, Belarus exported over 700,000 tons of potassium fertilizers to the US in 2021, a fraction of the roughly 13 million tons imported by the US in 2025, with nearly 90% coming from Canada.

Trump's remarks come as Canada and the US have imposed reciprocal tariffs in a trade war, with some natural resources, such as oil and critical minerals, exempt from levies. Belarus's potash production is already under contract for the year, according to President Alexander Lukashenko, limiting its ability to supply large volumes to the US.

The transport of Belarusian fertilizers has faced logistical issues in recent years, with Lithuania ending its contract with Belaruskali OAO in 2022. EU sanctions against Belarus, stemming from its presidential election in 2020 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, have further complicated matters. While Canada's proximity allows for lower potash delivery prices, US sanctions relief may not significantly restore Belarus's advantage without corresponding European action at Baltic ports.

Trump has attempted to mend relations with Belarus and its leader, Lukashenko, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The US lifted additional sanctions on Belarusian potash in March following the release of political prisoners, despite ongoing EU restrictions. The US is encouraging Ukraine to alleviate potash import restrictions on Belarus and urging other European allies to follow suit.

For US farmers and ranchers, who are crucial to Trump's Republican Party ahead of the November midterm elections, high input costs and export market disruptions due to the Iran conflict and US tariffs pose significant challenges. Potash prices for New Orleans have reached their highest since July 2023, according to Bloomberg Green Markets.

Trump has implemented measures to alleviate the burden on these sectors, with polls indicating voters largely disapprove of his party's economic and war policies.