Trump says Belarus potash deal in works amid Canada fight

President Donald Trump announced on Monday that the United States is working with Belarus to secure more potash supplies amid a trade dispute with Canada. The pricing for the potash from Belarus would be significantly lower than the current cost from Canada, providing relief for farmers and ranchers. However, Belarus has historically supplied a smaller amount of potash to the US compared to Canada, and the logistics of transporting the fertilizer could pose challenges.

Prior to US trade restrictions, Belarus exported over 700,000 tons of potassium fertilizers to the US in 2021, which is a small fraction of the total US imports in 2025, with 90% coming from Canada.

The escalating trade war between the US and Canada, involving tit-for-tariffs on various imports, has put pressure on the US economy. Canadian potash producers, such as Nutrien Ltd. and Mosaic Co., have seen their stock prices decline due to the trade tensions. While Belarus has the world's largest potash reserves, it currently lacks the capacity to meet the US demand due to existing production contracts.

Additionally, the Belarusian rail system's termination of its contract with state-run Belaruskali OAO in 2022 has further complicated the shipment of the fertilizer.

Experts note that the US sanctions relief announced by President Trump will likely not significantly improve Belarus' competitive advantage in the potash market, as Canada remains a more cost-effective supplier. Trump's efforts to rebuild ties with Belarus and its leader, Alexander Lukashenko, have included lifting sanctions on Belarusian potash in March, despite European Union restrictions remaining in place.

The US is encouraging Ukraine to ease restrictions on potash imports from Belarus and to persuade other European allies to do the same.

As potash is a crucial source of foreign currency for Belarus, which was severely impacted by western sanctions over its political repression and support for Russia in the Ukraine conflict, the US farmer and rancher constituents of Trump's Republican Party are feeling the strain from high costs for diesel, fertilizer, and other inputs, as well as export market disruptions.

New Orleans potash spot prices have reached their highest levels since July 2023, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the potash market. Trump's actions aim to alleviate the economic burden on these key groups as voters continue to express disapproval of his party's handling of the economy and the war.