Russia’s parliamentary election results were predictable but what comes next matters

Russia's parliamentary election results were a foregone conclusion, with the ruling United Russia party securing a decisive victory. President Vladimir Putin, who supports the ruling party and Russia's war in Ukraine, assured Russians that the election would demonstrate national unity and boost morale. The Kremlin has also touted the election as evidence that Russia, unlike Ukraine, is capable of holding free and fair elections even during wartime.

However, the next steps taken by the Kremlin are less predictable and may have more significant implications for the future of the country. The staging of the vote across Russia's 11 time zones, including in regions occupied by Russian forces in Ukraine, was presented as a symbol of normalcy amid the war's escalating casualties, economic hardship, and public anxiety.

Despite the Kremlin's reassurances that life in Russia continues largely unaffected, the reality of the "Special Military Operation" in Ukraine is taking a toll. The Kremlin's plan to use its claimed mandate to expand the forced mobilization of the Russian military, already partially implemented, is a source of concern. A chaotic partial mobilization in September 2022 saw around 300,000 men drafted, causing widespread outrage and prompting many Russians to flee their homes to avoid conscription.

The Kremlin has since tightened border controls, making it more difficult for people to leave. However, the former president has dismissed fears of a repeat mobilization as "complete nonsense" and an "information attack on Russia." With the election outcome providing a veneer of political support, the Kremlin may leverage this to justify further measures, such as a renewed push in Ukraine or stricter social and economic controls, in an effort to assert renewed authority.