Projecting rest of Duke football's 2026 season using ESPN FPI rankings

For the second time in three years, Duke has kicked off their football season with a perfect 3-0 record under coach Manny Diaz. The Blue Devils have been propelled by an improved defense and the impressive performance of star back Nate Sheppard, who leads the nation in all-purpose and rushing yards. With an 196.7 average, Sheppard has also earned eight touchdowns.

After their bye week following a win against William & Mary, Duke returns to conference play for the remainder of the season. ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) projects Duke entering all but two games as a favored team. Here is how the rest of Duke's 2026 season is expected to play out according to ESPN's FPI rankings, as of Tuesday, September 21.

In Week 4, Duke is favored to defeat William & Mary with a 99.0% chance of winning. The Blue Devils should be cautious against the Tribe, as they faced early struggles against Elon in previous years.

Week 6 features an away game against Georgia Tech with a 64.5% probability of victory. The Yellow Jackets' performance this season remains unclear, but a home game against an undefeated Duke could serve as motivation for them.

In Week 7, Duke faces off against the Tar Heels at home with a 67.8% chance of winning. Following a lightning delay against Clemson, UNC suffered a loss that could have been a winnable game, potentially influenced by off-field distractions.

Week 8 brings an away game against Virginia with an updated 43.8% chance of victory. Duke's odds rose to this percentage after the Cavaliers' recent loss to West Virginia.

The Blue Devils meet Boston College in Week 9 with a 89.6% probability of winning. The Eagles had a 22-16 victory over FCS member Maine, which may not inspire much for Bill O'Brien's squad.

Week 10 sees an away game against NC State with a 65.9% chance of winning. The Wolfpack nearly pulled off an upset against Vanderbilt, having a 99.9% chance of winning with the ball and less than 10 seconds left.

Week 11 features an away game against Miami with a 10.7% probability of victory. Miami's recent victory over Wake Forest was not dominant, but it is still difficult to envision many teams competing with the Hurricanes outside of a few. Can Duke be among them?

In Week 12, Duke is expected to win against Clemson for the second consecutive year, as their odds increase with Clemson's ongoing struggles. The odds currently stand at 65.2%.

Week 13 will be a home game against Wake Forest, with Duke having a 58.1% chance of victory. A win against the Demon Deacons could potentially secure Duke's place in the ACC title game for the second year in a row.