Gartner predicts 55% of enterprise VMware users will be investigating an exit by 2029

Gartner predicts that by 2029, over half of VMware's enterprise users will begin investigating alternative hybrid cloud platforms as they contemplate replacing their existing VMware-based deployments. Despite this prediction, Gartner still rates Broadcom's business unit as a leader in two major markets. The company's Magic Quadrant for Distributed Hybrid Infrastructure (DHI) suggests that 55% of enterprises will initiate proofs of concept for alternative distributed hybrid infrastructure products by 2029.

This prediction stems from a "Strategic Planning Assumption" made by Gartner. The timeline of six years after Broadcom's acquisition of VMware is noteworthy, as many VMware users acquired fresh three-year subscriptions before the deal closed. Migrating from VMware to a rival platform is a complex and risky project, and some customers may prefer to stick with Broadcom longer while planning their transition.

While numerous virtualization contenders are attempting to attract VMware's customers, progress is slow. Nutanix CEO Rajiv Ramaswami has stated that it will take several years before some of their competitors are ready to move. Gartner's DHI Magic Quadrant rates VMware as a leader alongside AWS, Nutanix, Microsoft, and Oracle. The company's core virtualization technology, formal sovereign cloud ecosystem, and AI-native infrastructure are seen as strengths.

However, VMware's communication, commercial business practices, and delays in support have received negative feedback from Gartner customers. Additionally, the transition to per-core subscriptions has resulted in significant cost increases for many customers. Unlike VMware, Nutanix's licensing and pricing models have been described as complex and less competitive than other market leaders.