Sydney’s housing market bloodbath

Sydney's housing market has seen a significant downturn, with values dropping by 8.0% from their peak in early March 2026, according to Cotality's index. This marks the largest decline in the city's recorded history, previously reaching -12.9% between June 2017 and May 2019. The recession during this period was influenced by stringent mortgage lending restrictions, the aftermath of the banking royal commission, and the potential policy shifts under a Shorten Labor government, including the abolishment of negative gearing and a reduction in the capital gains tax discount if they won the 2019 federal election.

However, the downturn was curtailed when the Morrison Coalition government emerged victorious in the federal election on May 18, 2019, thereby securing the continuation of negative gearing and capital gains tax settings. The housing market subsequently rebounded robustly. Today, the Sydney housing market presents a starkly different scenario.

There is no indication that the Albanese government intends to overturn its decision to abolish negative gearing and alter capital gains tax to an indexation method. Consequently, the Sydney market is now undergoing an adjustment period, with rental yields increasing to a level deemed reasonable for investors, considering the diminished after-tax cash flows.

Additionally, being the nation's most expensive housing market, Sydney is the most vulnerable to fluctuations in interest rates. Financial markets are now forecasting two to three further rate hikes within the next nine months, which could prove particularly detrimental to Sydney's housing market. The convergence of the government's modifications to property investor taxes and the rising interest rates constitutes a perilous combination for the city's most expensive housing market, potentially leading to a record price decline of 15% or more.