Seven of Ethiopia's armed groups announce anti-government alliance

Seven Ethiopian rebel groups have joined forces to overthrow the government in Addis Ababa and establish a transitional administration. The alliance, known as the Alliance for Survival, unites the Fano militia from Amhara, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), and four smaller groupings. These rebels accuse Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government of waging war, committing genocide, causing mass destruction, and plunging Ethiopia into poverty. They argue that the nation risks disintegration.

Ethiopia has experienced years of armed conflict in the populous regions of Oromia and Amhara, as well as renewed tensions in Tigray, where a two-year civil war resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths and millions of internal displacements. Although an African-Union peace deal concluded the Tigray war in 2022, fears persist of a resurgence of full-scale conflict as both sides blame each other for violating the agreement.

The Alliance for Survival also includes groups from three additional regions – Ogaden, Afar, and Benishangul-Gumuz – constituting half of Ethiopia’s 12 regional states.

The Fano group from Amhara previously collaborated with federal forces during the Tigray war. However, within a year of the war's end, they turned against the federal government in an armed uprising after refusing to disarm as ordered by authorities. The Ethiopian government has been waging war against the OLA since 2018. The announcement of the Alliance for Survival coalition surfaced months after reports surfaced of an alleged collaboration between TPLF and neighboring Eritrea.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed responded by expressing confidence in Ethiopia’s defensive capabilities, stating that even if additional groups joined, he harbored no fear regarding Ethiopia’s sovereignty. He made this statement to lawmakers in July.

In June, Ethiopia conducted a general election, with Abiy’s Prosperity Party maintaining its overwhelming parliamentary majority. Despite the election being marred by conflict, accusations of repression, and low turnout by opposition parties, the Fano and OLA rebel groups denounced the election and its results. The Tigray region, home to six million people, was completely excluded from the poll.