Russia's elections had few surprises - but how the Kremlin uses the results will be crucial

Russia's recent elections did not produce any unexpected outcomes. The ruling United Russia party, firmly in the Kremlin's control, was anticipated to maintain its dominance in parliament. No other party posed a significant threat to their constitutional majority in the State Duma. This situation persisted even after more than four and a half years of conflict against Ukraine, which had inflicted substantial losses on the Russian military, caused economic strain, and resulted in fuel shortages due to Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil facilities.

The parties that surpassed the 5% threshold and secured a place in the new Duma were identical to those in the previous parliament, all firmly aligned with the Kremlin and the so-called special military operation.

The election also saw the exclusion of Yabloko, the sole anti-war party permitted to contest. However, just a fortnight prior to the election, the Supreme Court barred Yabloko from participating, signaling Kremlin apprehension that the party's pro-peace message might gain public support. Yabloko's chairman, Nikolai Rybakov, anticipates that the new Duma will mirror the previous one, casting its unanimous support for Putin's policies.

While Yabloko was removed from the party list, around 100 of its candidates remained as individual contestants in regional races, despite ongoing restrictions. Some of these candidates are incarcerated, barred from running, and some election observers were not registered, hindering their ability to monitor the voting process.

As the final day of the three-day election approached, Ukraine launched a substantial drone assault on Moscow, targeting the city's oil refinery. Polling station attendees near the refinery expressed little astonishment at the ongoing war's impact on their daily lives. In the war-ravaged regions of Donbas, Bryansk, and Belgorod, residents exemplify a resigned acceptance of these attacks, continuing their routines unaffected.

Despite the Kremlin's official assertions, such as President Putin's recent denial of another wave of mobilisation, deep anxiety persists in Russian society regarding the possibility of a new conscription. The Kremlin is expected to interpret the election result as a mandate from the populace to perpetuate the war.