¿Descuenta ya el mercado un Gobierno de Núñez Feijóo en España?

A Wall Street bank Goldman Sachs predicts that the Spanish market will discount a future government of PP and Vox, led by Núñez Feijóo, capable of controlling the fiscal situation. The concern among investors about the political future in France, which is now spreading to Germany, contrasts with the calm observed in Spain despite high fragmentation and polarization in parliament.

Spain can fund its debt at 3.90% annually with its 10-year bonds, while France does so at nearly 4.46%. Both countries face equally contested elections in 2027. Ibex 35 has risen by 31% over the last 12 months, while the CAC 40 in Paris has risen by 4%. A Goldman Sachs report sent to investors explains that looking at the surveys, the market discounts a future government of PP and Vox in Spain that would control the fiscal situation.

In contrast, France may choose Marine Le Pen as president without a clear majority in the Parliament. Spain faces less short-term political uncertainty than its neighboring countries, analysts from Goldman predict, and a clear post-election majority could reinforce fiscal consolidation and support further debt reduction. In our central scenario, Spain's debt-to-GDP ratio would fall by 5 percentage points to 95% in 2030, making it a notable exception among advanced economies.

The Wall Street bank highlights that, in contrast, the debt would increase in France, the United States, the United Kingdom, Italy, and even Germany in that period. The bank expects fiscal consolidation to advance under a government led by PP, given the party's traditional emphasis on lower taxes and prudent fiscal management. This would bring Spain's credit spread (the difference between its 10-year bond cost and German bonds) to 50 basis points by next year, compared to 85 points in France and Italy (France could exceed 100 points in the first quarter ahead of the elections).

The main risk Goldman sees is that Núñez Feijóo, leader of PP, fails to gain a majority with Vox and continues the parliamentary deadlock. With European programs reaching their end this year, the need for a government capable of approving annual budgets will become more urgent. Looking at the 2027 elections, investors will focus on the possibility of another Parliament without a clear majority.

Prolonged electoral uncertainty would reduce investor confidence in the continued improvement of the Spanish economy and weaken the basis for our constructive view.