Is the market already discounting a Núñez Feijóo government in Spain?

Goldman Sachs analysts see Spain as a fiscal exception until 2030, driven by the expected majority of the PP and Vox parties. This perceived stability has led to investors demanding a lower yield on Spanish 10-year bonds compared to France. The Ibex 35 has risen 31% in the last 12 months, while the French CAC 40 has only gained 4%.

Goldman Sachs predicts that Spain's debt-to-GDP ratio will decrease to 95% by 2030, while it will increase in France, the US, UK, Italy, and Germany. The bank sees a potential risk in the possibility of no clear majority for the PP and Vox parties.