BNP Paribas ve las bolsas en máximos en la recta final del año
La entidad espera que el S&P 500 suba un 9,7% adicional hasta los 8.500 puntos y el Stoxx 600 un 9,2% hasta los 700 puntos. Antes de lograr nuevos máximos, BNP espera que las bolsas se estanquen unos meses. El banco francés apuesta por sectores cíclicos como la banca y la automoción. Leer
BNP Paribas anticipates the S&P 500 and Stoxx 600 reaching new highs in the final stretch of the year, with the former rising 9.7% to 8,500 points and the latter 9.2% to 700 points. Before reaching these peaks, the bank expects the stock markets to stabilize for a few months. BNP Paribas is betting on cyclical sectors such as banking and automotive.
Despite geopolitical uncertainty, inflation persistence, and central banks' restrictive tone, the bank's earnings forecasts remain ambitious, with gains backed by record profit predictions for companies. The bank forecasts a significant rally in the next 12 months, with the S&P 500 touching historical peaks at 8,500 points, a 9.7% increase from current levels, and the Stoxx 600 potentially reaching a historical ceiling at 700 points, a 9.2% upside from its 8.40% gain since the start of 2026.
However, the path to these new highs is not without volatility, as elevated valuations and high profit expectations point to a more challenging environment for generating higher returns. BNP Paribas warns of a possible period of stagnation in the markets during the autumn months, driven by historically unfavorable seasonality, investor saturation in equities, and a firmer monetary policy stance from central banks.
The bank advises investors to capitalize on potential market corrections to boost their positions. To weather this potential correction, BNP Paribas favors investments in cyclical sectors, especially banking and automotive, and technology, while overweighting the variable income from emerging markets. The bank also remains optimistic about the local-currency debt of these regions, with particular preference for South Korean bonds due to fiscal improvement and strong technology sector, Hungary and Czech Republic for moderate interest rate cuts and inflation, and Turkey and Colombia for benefiting from high carry trade.
The bank is less optimistic about the rest of fixed income, believing that bonds are more likely to trigger a market correction rather than providing benefit diversification and portfolio protection due to the complex global supply and demand context. Thus, it underweights the sovereign debt of the US, Europe, and Japan.
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