Wahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: Nordost-AfD vor SPD - ARD: CDU fliegt erstmals aus Landtag

In the historic election for the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag, the CDU party of Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz, led by Minister President Manuela Schwesig, could possibly win their first seat in the region's history. According to ARD and ZDF calculations, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party led by Minister Presidential candidate Leif-Erik Holm, has overtaken the SPD, securing the top spot.

However, Schwesig's party may still govern as the AfD has a majority in the Landtag. The left-wing The Left party is significantly down in support compared to the 2021 election. The Greens are close to securing their place in the parliament, while the BSW (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen Süd-West) failed to reach the 5% threshold. The FDP (Free Democratic Party) did not make a significant impact.

After the preliminary counts, the distribution of seats in the Schwerin Castle could look like this: SPD 28-29 seats (2021: 34), AfD 30-32 (14), The Left 5 (9), Green 4-5 (5) - CDU 0-4. A majority of 36 seats is needed to form a government. With around 1.3 million eligible voters, turnout was between 78-79%, lower than the 70.8% in the previous election.

Despite Schwesig's party losing seats, she still seeks the position of Regierungschefin (Prime Minister). The Green party leader, Felix Banaszak, expects his party to be part of the next government despite the second-place finish for the SPD. The CDU faces its second defeat in two weeks in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. The CDU's chairman, Daniel Peters, lost more than half of their votes in the polarized campaign.

The Left party received the least support and is far below their 2021 expectation. The Greens declined to 5.5-5.6% (6.3). The FDP has fallen to 1% (5.8) and is now only represented in four state parliaments. Following the Infratest dimap (ARD) and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (ZDF) calculations, the seat distribution for the Schwerin Castle could be: SPD 28-29 seats (2021: 34), AfD 30-32 (14), The Left 5 (9), Green 4-5 (5) - CDU 0-4. The majority required for a government is 36 seats.