Tres claves que pueden provocar subidas o caídas superiores al 20% en Bolsa

Three key factors can cause swings of more than 20% in the stock market. These factors can tip the scales and lead to significant upward or downward movements. The behavior of markets determines whether bullish or bearish predictions materialize, with variations in both cases exceeding 20%. In a short span, three major central banks worldwide simultaneously decided to raise interest rates by 25 basis points.

From September 10th to 18th, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve of the United States, and the Bank of Japan increased interest rates. The bullish cycle in interest rates has not ended yet. The stock market displayed new signs of resilience, resisting this wave of interest rate hikes near historical highs. The uncertainties now focus on whether variable income will continue to withstand an increasingly demanding monetary environment.

Swiss analysts at UBS remain confident. They argue that the global profits cycle continues to strengthen, driven by manufacturing activity improvements and robust investment in artificial intelligence. Consequently, they believe that a moderate tightening of policies could generate volatility but should not alter the outlook for variable income, as economic growth and corporate profits remain resilient.

UBS projects further global variable income rises. In their base scenario, they estimate the MSCI All Country World Index could reach 1,460 points by year-end and up to 1,510 points in June 2027. UBS accompanies its central predictions with two extreme scenarios, bullish and bearish, and breaks down the three key factors that could propel the variable income to much higher levels, more than 20% away from current trading levels.

In their bullish scenario, they foresee rises up to 1,670 points in the MSCI All Country World Index, while in their bearish scenario, they open the door to falls down to 990 points. According to UBS analysts, the three catalysts that could lead to the markets rallying far above current projections are AI, geopolitics, and tariffs.

The technological surge is the first key factor for the most bullish scenario in the stock market. UBS points out that it would be triggered by a context where AI continues to positively surprise; adoption accelerates, leading to larger and earlier productivity gains than anticipated. A rapid and complete desescalation of geopolitics would be another clear bullish catalyst for the global variable income.

The analysts of UBS summarize that a rapid and full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could boost growth expectations and, at the same time, reduce inflationary pressures. A favorable tariff policy would be the third key factor to multiply the projected rises in the stock market. UBS points out that a significant policy reversal by the Trump Administration to significantly reduce tariffs could boost business and consumer confidence, driving superior economic growth and corporate profit above expectations.

Geopolitical alerts would trigger a much weaker growth in the global economy, hence the clearly bearish influence they could have on markets. UBS indicates that this scenario would activate if the conflict in the Middle East reactivates and energy flows disruptions persist, leading to significantly slower economic growth. The slowdown of AI could have a multiplicative effect on the variable income.

UBS projects that stocks in the AI sector could fall due to growing concern about declining return on investment, leading to a reduction in capital expenditure. Additionally, it does not overlook that significant technological advancement could render current technology or business models obsolete. Inflation would be the third key factor capable of dramatically shifting markets downward.

UBS warns in this bearish scenario that concern gives way to fear of a global economic recession, allowing central banks to aggressively cut interest rates in 2027.