Landtagswahlen: AfD vorne und Linken-Triumph: Der Wahlabend abseits der CDU

As voting stations close at 6pm, Germany watches the CDU's first words from Chancellor Friedrich Merz, spoken by a defeated leader. The winners are not the focus of attention in the early minutes. A look at the election night outside the CDU reveals that the AfD is once again set to achieve a breakthrough: In Berlin, the party's performance has improved significantly compared to the 2023 re-run, winning several percentage points.

However, the results are less impressive in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where the party has doubled its value. The AfD has now won in three federal states as the victor. Though a government option seems unlikely, the AfD views the election night as a significant boost, especially after the Sachsen-Anhalt election and the local elections in Niedersachsen.

Co-Party chief Tino Chrupalla called the results sensational and urged celebration. The values of the CDU matter almost as much to the AfD as their own numbers, as the union's long-term goal is to displace it nationally and become the ruling party. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the Christian Democrats only barely exceeded the five-percent threshold, while in Berlin, they suffered a significant loss and may have to relinquish the post of Mayor.

"The result in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is incredible," said AfD leader Alice Weidel. The CDU is struggling to hold onto the five-percent threshold "and this will ensure that Chancellor Friedrich Merz will no longer be manageable from our perspective, and that's good for our friends." Following the election in Sachsen-Anhalt, where the AfD garnered nearly 44 percent, Weidel emerged triumphant.

The CDU will "never again" win a Bundestag election and demand a new one at the federal level. The AfD is expected to benefit from this. In the February 2023 Bundestag election, they doubled their result from 10.4 to 20.8 percent; currently, they are at up to 29 percent in the polls - the Union stands at around 20. The Left has won the capital of Berlin for the first time.

Left-wing candidate Elif Eralp declared during the election party, "Starting today, we will jointly change our Berlin and make it a better place." "In our city, love and justice have triumphed over hatred, and this message reaches the world." The Left is expected to hold onto their position in Berlin until the end of 2024, with the potential to win a female mayor in late 2024 and potentially influence the Bund and other federal states.

Their weight in the Bund and other states could grow, possibly even via the federal parliament. In the meantime, the Berlin election reflects the transformation of the Left as a whole since the 2024 break with Sahra Wagenknecht. The Left has become more urban, female, younger, more academic, and in some parts, even more Western.

Political scientist Stefan Marschall told Deutsche Presse-Agentur that the Left's urbanization, gender and age diversification, and academicization have coincided with its shift to urban issues like high rents. However, governing could also pose a risk for the Left, as they may need to make painful compromises with potential coalition partners SPD and Greens on the central issue of acquiring large apartment complexes in Berlin.