Guatemala’s Democracy Dilemma

Three years ago in Guatemala, a coalition of young and Indigenous voters propelled reformer Bernardo Arévalo to a surprising presidential victory. The nation had defied the global trend toward populist authoritarianism and the "pact of the corrupt," a loose alliance of politicians, judges, criminal networks, and crony capitalists that had gained control of the country's institutions.

Today, however, the mood in Guatemala is less optimistic. Arévalo's former allies and supporters feel let down by the president's perceived inability to address the core issues plaguing the country. In May, Arévalo defended his administration's pace of progress, acknowledging that an alternative would have involved abusing his power as president.

He emphasized the importance of rule of law, distinguishing it from rule by law. Critics argue that Arévalo's reluctance to challenge the entrenched system might allow the "pact of the corrupt" to regain control, or that voters may choose an autocrat instead. The dilemma faced by liberal reformers in dismantling authoritarian state capture without resorting to illiberal measures is not unique to Guatemala.

Countries like South Africa, Poland, and Hungary have grappled with similar challenges, each facing accusations of undermining the rule of law in their own ways. Arévalo's cautious approach, while preserving democracy as a belief among Guatemalans, has left many feeling that he did not fight forcefully enough for their cause. The attorney general's office, a symbol of the power held by the corrupt elite, has become a focal point for the Guatemalan people's desire for change.

Arévalo's decision not to take extralegal action against her has sparked criticism, and his critics argue that his rules-bound approach may have inadvertently allowed the corrupt system to persist. As the attorney general steps down and a new leader takes over, the hope is that Guatemala will be able to finally break free from its past and embrace a more effective and just system.