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Recent proposals for US tariffs on Russian oil could present a significant challenge for India and China, both of which rely heavily on Russian crude to maintain stable energy supplies. The threat, which could take effect within 30 days of enactment, is a result of the US House granting President Donald Trump the authority to impose tariffs on the five largest buyers of Russian crude or gas that "knowingly" secure new cargo.

With rates up to 100 percent, the tariffs could incentivize buyers to rush to secure Russian oil before any potential future restrictions, potentially further solidifying Russia's role in global oil markets.

India's dependence on Russian oil is evident, with Russian crude accounting for nearly 50 percent of its imports in July, up from 18.7 percent in February. The US, meanwhile, bought $58.9 billion worth of Indian goods in the first seven months of 2026, while India sold $30.4 billion worth of goods, creating a $28.4 billion deficit.

A tariff on Russian oil could also impact Indian exports, particularly in the electrical machinery sector, including smartphones and electronic components assembled for American brands like Apple.

China's reliance on Russian oil has diminished slightly, falling 15 percent since February to 1.89 million barrels per day (bpd), but its share of the country's imports has risen to 22 percent from 16 percent as Gulf supplies declined. China also imports about 800,000 bpd of Russian crude via pipeline, which would not be affected by tariffs on seaborne shipments. The tight global oil market, with Brent crude trading above $100 for seven consecutive sessions, could exacerbate the impact of these potential tariffs.

Despite President Trump's earlier threats, the White House is cautious about imposing tariffs to avoid tightening supplies further, pushing oil prices higher, and adding pressure to the global economy. China and India are considered key pressure points, as refiners may seek exemptions, reduce spot purchases, and demand wider Russian discounts rather than stop buying altogether.