TISA Kenya: 81% El Niño risk puts food security and flood readiness to the test

Kenya is bracing for an 81% chance of a powerful El Niño during the upcoming October–December rainy season, prompting the Right to Food Coalition to demand immediate action to ensure effective protection for food supplies and vulnerable communities. The group emphasizes that the urgency now lies not in whether early warnings have been issued, but whether those warnings translate into tangible, accessible and independently verifiable safeguards before the rains intensify.

Kenya's meteorologists predict above-average rainfall across much of the country, driven by a strong El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. While not every region will experience flooding, the heightened risk underscores the importance of proactive measures, particularly in areas already susceptible to flooding, landslides and poor infrastructure.

The Right to Food Coalition praises the government's recent steps, including mapping flood and landslide hotspots, clearing drainage systems, and preparing emergency teams. However, they stress that these efforts must be more than mere policy documents and contingency plans. The coalition asks whether Kenya's preparedness is truly measurable on the ground before the first major emergency strikes.

The looming El Niño also raises concerns about the potential impact on food security and prices in Kenya. Flooded farms, livestock losses, damaged markets and blocked roads could reduce food availability, raise prices, and create economic pressure for households, especially affecting marginalized groups such as women, children, the elderly, and persons with disabilities.

The coalition highlights Kenya's climate-resilience financing, with Ksh7.1 billion in locally led climate-resilience grants allocated to 45 counties. They urge authorities to demonstrate that these funds are being effectively utilized to create functioning drainage systems, reliable early warning systems, safe evacuation arrangements, and accessible assistance before the rainy season begins.