Seasonality is Changing for Extreme Dry and Humid Heat Events
NASA’s MERRA-2 reanalysis of past weather and climate reveals substantial shifts in extreme heat seasonality over the past 45 years.
Seasonality of extreme dry and humid heat events is undergoing significant changes, according to a study published in AGU Advances. Researchers Ivanovich et al. analyzed data from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) spanning the years 1980-2024 to evaluate how the timing of these extreme heat events has shifted.
By comparing temperature patterns from 1980-1989 to those in the most recent decade, the study revealed substantial alterations in the seasonality of both dry and humid heat extremes worldwide.
These changes are not uniform across regions. In areas like western Europe and northeastern Russia, the dominant shift involves an increase in pre-season extremes, akin to springtime heat events in midlatitude regions. However, much of the United States, eastern Europe, and eastern China have experienced more pronounced changes in late-season extremes.
The study underscores that regional climate processes can sometimes counteract or even amplify the global warming trend, leading to unexpected local variations in heat seasonality.
The findings provide valuable insights into the evolving risks posed by extreme heat, highlighting both the locations where the seasonality of heat events is expanding and the specific times of year when these changes are most pronounced. This nuanced understanding can aid in developing more effective climate adaptation and risk-mitigation strategies tailored to regional needs.
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