Russia’s parliamentary elections will not be a referendum on the Ukraine war – or anything, really

Russia is not a democracy, yet it conducts parliamentary elections on September 18-20. These elections will elect parliamentary representatives, governors, and local assembly members. They mark the first such polls since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but they are not a measure of the public's views on the war or the country's economic situation.

Russians are disillusioned with President Vladimir Putin's rule due to the war's fifth year and its fifth year, with an estimated 1.4 million battle casualties, including 450,000 deaths. Russian soldiers continue to face high casualty rates, with 30,000 either killed or injured each month. Frequent Ukrainian drone attacks further fuel Russian discontent.

Elections in dictatorships, like Russia's, are designed to appear democratic and gain legitimacy. These "electoral authoritarianism" systems gauge public sentiment, gather voter information, and mobilize supporters. While Putin retains ultimate power, he has aligned himself more closely with United Russia, the ruling party. Russia allows only a few approved parties, often under Kremlin control, to participate in elections.

The Communist Party and nominally liberal New People party are among them, but pro-Western opposition parties like Yabloko have been marginalized or barred from elections altogether. The Kremlin has resorted to incentives and coercion to ensure high voter turnout and maintain the appearance of legitimacy. Even when the outcome appears predetermined, regimes like Russia's must allow some uncertainty to sustain the electoral process's legitimacy.

In reality, these elections highlight the Putin regime's ongoing struggle against opposition and the challenges posed by Russia's faltering war in Ukraine.