Oil prices fall 1% on hopes of limited supply disruptions

Oil prices experienced a 1% decrease on Friday, continuing a downward trend for the third consecutive day, but remained above the $100 mark. This decline was primarily driven by hopes for limited supply disruptions, as traders remained optimistic about alternative routes for Middle Eastern barrels to reach markets. Despite fresh strikes between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthis on Thursday, which escalated the Middle East conflict, market sentiment was largely unaffected.

Brent crude futures dropped $1.01, or 1%, to $103.77 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate futures fell $1.03, or 1%, to $100.88 a barrel. Both benchmarks had previously declined by about 1% on Thursday. The situation worsened as Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthis continued to exchange strikes along their border, expanding the scope of the Middle East war.

Oil prices had surged to near four-month highs earlier in the week due to reports suggesting that crude loadings at Saudi Arabia's Red Sea export hub of Yanbu had been suspended. Riyadh had also canceled some deliveries to Europe following an attack on its East-West pipeline. The exact timeline for reopening the pipeline and resuming normal crude flows remained uncertain, with estimates varying among sources.

Three of the pipeline's pumping stations, including one more than initially reported, were damaged, according to satellite imagery and industry sources.

A prolonged closure of the pipeline to Yanbu could potentially cut off up to 4% of global oil supply, according to traders. Saudi Arabia was reportedly seeking to restore approximately half of the pipeline's capacity within days after the Red Sea link was disrupted by drone attacks last week. Additionally, Saudi Arabia offered more crude cargoes to Asian refiners via ship-to-ship transfers off Oman's Sohar port, aiming to mitigate some of the supply disruption caused by the pipeline attacks.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright indicated that crude should resume flowing through the pipeline within days. However, uncertainty persisted, as JPMorgan stated for the first time since the US-Israeli war on Iran that they lacked a clear baseline view for oil markets. This uncertainty arose as the US and Iran have not held peace talks since an interim agreement reached in June fell apart within weeks.

The conflict is expected to be discussed at the upcoming United Nations General Assembly, with an Iranian delegation granted the opportunity to attend.