India set to sustain 6.5-7% real GDP growth, nominal growth seen at 11-12%: Jefferies

India is projected to maintain real GDP growth of 6.5-7 percent in the upcoming fiscal year, with nominal GDP expected to reach 11-12 percent, according to Jefferies. This growth is driven by robust domestic demand, increasing bank credit, and improved economic activity, as highlighted in Jefferies' latest GREED & fear report. Bank credit growth accelerated notably, with loans to micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) expanding rapidly.

Additionally, credit to industry and services increased, indicating a potential resurgence in private-sector capital expenditure. The improved nominal GDP growth could lead to stronger corporate earnings, with Jefferies projecting a rise from 14 percent in the current fiscal year to 17 percent in the next fiscal year. Domestic demand remains resilient, supported by strong GST collections, rising power consumption, and improved residential real estate sales.

Foreign currency inflows, particularly from non-resident Indians, have also bolstered the economy. Notably, the government's fiscal consolidation efforts are projected to result in a declining fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP in the years ahead.