Business Cycle Indicators: Industrial, Manufacturing Production under Consensus
IP flat, below +0.3% m/m Bloomberg consensus, manufacturing -0.3% below +0.3%. Capacity utilization drops. Adding in monthly GDP, early benchmark NFP as well. Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade…
Industrial production remained unchanged, while manufacturing production declined compared to Bloomberg's consensus. Capacity utilization also contracted. When combined with the most recent GDP data, along with the preliminary nonfarm payroll figures, it suggests a nuanced picture of the labor market. The industrial production index stayed flat, but manufacturing production slipped.
Figures 1 and 2 illustrate civilian employment adjusted to the nonfarm payrolls concept, smoothing population controls, alongside manufacturing production, along with other economic indicators. The data emphasizes the need for caution in interpreting a potential slowdown, as output and trade measures remained robust through July.
The nowcasts for Q3 economic growth rate span a range, from a conservative 2.3% projection by the New York Fed to a more optimistic 5.1% estimate from the Atlanta Fed.
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