Brazil’s Exchange Courts Small Savers as Lula Targets Betting Apps

Brazil's B3 exchange is exploring the idea of offering small investors contracts based on inflation predictions. The government, meanwhile, is considering a ban on online betting apps. B3, the country's only stock and derivatives exchange based in São Paulo, has been testing event contracts since April 2026. These contracts are simple yes-or-no questions about economic indicators, with prices representing the probability of a particular outcome.

The exchange sees this as a way to bring in retail investors who might be intimidated by conventional futures contracts. However, Brazil's National Monetary Council has banned derivatives tied to sporting, political, or cultural events, leaving only economic and financial variables. The CVM requires investors to have financial assets worth at least R$10 million, or a regulator's certification.

B3 argues that expanding access to these contracts is necessary for market liquidity. The government is drafting a provisional measure to ban online casino games, which would affect about 80% of operators' revenue. This ban could also pose budgetary challenges due to forgone revenue and the need to refund license fees.