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The Middle East is poised to experience a substantial surge in tourist spending, with projections indicating a 57% increase in visitor spending from 2025 to 2030. This significant growth, amounting to US$116 billion, is set to elevate the region's tourism revenues despite current geopolitical challenges. The forecast, presented at the Arabian Travel Market in Dubai, is based on the ATM Travel Trends Report 2026, a collaborative effort between Arabian Travel Market and Tourism Economics, an Oxford Economics company.

International travel within the broader Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia (MENASA) region is expected to rebound robustly in 2027, following a slower recovery in 2026. Tourism Economics predicts MENASA will see a 17% growth in international travel next year, more than double the anticipated global growth rate of 8%. By 2030, the region is projected to host 316 million international arrivals and facilitate 2.3 billion visitor nights, generating an estimated US$408 billion in spending, representing 36% more visitor nights, 46% more visitor spending, and 55% more international arrivals compared to 2025 levels.

Dave Goodger, Managing Director for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa at Tourism Economics, attributes this expansion to factors beyond mere cyclical recovery. He highlights rising wealth levels, favorable demographics, sustained investment in tourism infrastructure, and travelers' ongoing preference for enriching travel experiences as key drivers of the region's long-term outlook.

The forecast aligns with the overall strong performance of global tourism in 2025. Total international visitor nights reached 24 billion, marking a 16% increase from 2019 levels, while spending at destinations grew by 26% from 2019 to US$7.2 trillion, with international arrivals surpassing 1.5 billion for the first time. MENASA outperformed globally, with travel volumes almost 50% higher than 2019 levels, contributing over half of the worldwide increase in international travel.

The Middle East and North Africa alone saw a 57% increase in international visitor spending, with the UAE contributing US$56.9 billion and Saudi Arabia remaining the region's leading travel and tourism economy at US$178 billion.

Despite short-term disruptions, the outlook remains positive, with the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) projecting the Middle East to become the fastest-growing travel and tourism region between 2026 and 2036. The sector's GDP is expected to expand at an annual rate of 6.3% to US$605 billion, with major contributors including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, and Qatar.

Long-haul travel demand is anticipated to grow significantly, with leisure visitor nights from China expected to increase by 160% by 2030. Technology also plays a pivotal role, with 91% of Middle East travel businesses piloting or utilizing artificial intelligence tools, resulting in measurable cost savings. The region's hotel inventory has expanded substantially, with Dubai's hotels growing from around 45,000 rooms in 2008 to roughly 160,000 to 170,000 today, and Abu Dhabi boasting approximately 55,000 rooms.